% Chance Of A Recession In The Us In 2024. Some think a recession is likely in 2024. Us recession probability is at 56.29%, compared to 55.83% last month and 66.01% last year.

Using data from july, the indicator is at 0.5 percentage points, nodding to a 40% probability of a recession that could have started as early as march, michaillat and saez said in a paper. Download, graph, and track economic data.